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CERA is developing three global energy scenarios to 2030. Each of these scenarios provides a unique view on how geopolitics; technological change; and economic, demographic, and environmental trends could evolve through 2030. Collectively these scenarios will provide a robust framework for strategic decision making and understanding and evaluating uncertainty and risk.
- One scenario depicts strong global economic growth in early years, which leads to high oil demand growth coupled with high oil prices. This leads to strong global moves to increase energy efficiency and enhance the supply of alternative fuels.
- A second scenario portrays a world where the center of economic and political gravity shifts to the Asia Pacific region with more moderate and volatile economic growth and growing rivalry between the rising Asian powers and the United States and Europe for access to energy resources.
- The final scenario depicts systemic economic and trade protectionism and increased regulation leading to slower global economic growth and lower overall energy demand. Volatile prices result from political and security uncertainties in some major producing countries.
The scenarios are being described in terms of driving forces, key political and economic characteristics, and the principal technology and environmental trends. The crude oil price environment and key drivers for oil, gas, coal, electricity, and other energy sources are also being determined. Each scenario will provide population, economic activity, supply, demand, and indicative price data for each energy source on a region-specific basis.
Finally, an assessment of the strategic implications for the key energy segments including upstream oil and gas, downstream oil, power, service providers, and end users is being prepared to link the scenarios to strategic decision making.
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Workshops
The final presentation/workshops will be held in Houston on June 15, 2006; in Istanbul on June 20, 2006; and in an Asia Pacific location during July 2006.
Written Report
The final written report will include detailed scenario descriptions and characteristics with key strategic implications for different energy segments and will be delivered in summer 2006.
Online Access
CERA will provide online access to the final workshop presentation materials, qualitative data, and the written report.
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Dawn of a New Age is the most comprehensive study that CERA has ever undertaken—developing global energy–focused scenarios to 2030. Although 2030 may seem far off, a long-term vision of the energy future is essential to making successful investment and strategic decisions today. This is the perspective that makes Dawn of a New Age a practical, high-value decision-making tool for strategic decision making.
The scenarios draw on CERA's unique and deep industry knowledge as well as our extensive network with companies, government officials, and independent experts. The study has involved over 50 participating companies from a wide range of industries in a series of four interactive workshops to exchange ideas and perspectives and help build the scenarios. Finally, the scenarios draw on the extensive knowledge and analytical capabilities of CERA’s experts in all regions and energy disciplines.
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The critical issues addressed in Dawn of a New Age will shed light on the future competitive landscape and the challenges facing decision makers everywhere. Some important questions addressed include
- Will today's energy investments be successful in tomorrow's world given political, technological, economic, and environmental forces that can lead to abrupt and unforeseen outcomes?
- Who will be the winners and losers in the energy future? Which markets, energy forms, and strategies will offer the most opportunities, and when?
- Will energy demand trends change in ways that are currently unanticipated? Will petroleum maintain dominance of the transportation market? Will the role of hydrocarbons in power generation change? What new technologies or policies could alter energy demand trends?
- How will demographic and geopolitical shifts affect the global energy economy?
- Which environmental path will the world follow in the next 25 years?
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