For more details, please call Michael De Jesus at +1 617 866 5187

Key Features

LNGAnalytics^TM incorporates several distinct features of CERA’s research:

• CERA market outlooks. LNGAnalytics includes future projections, as well as historical data. It brings together CERA’s natural gas price outlooks—both short and long term—in an integrated format along with outlooks for LNG supply and demand.
• CERA project valuations. By employing in-house IHS software and CERA expertise, LNGAnalytics includes cost and present value estimates for all main LNG projects, both upstream and regasification, in the world.
• Interactive economic tool. LNGAnalytics offers an interactive capability that enables users to change key input assumptions. LNGAnalytics shows clearly the difference—or delta—between client-generated results and CERA baseline economics, allowing clients to explore key sensitivities or align calculations with internal corporate assumptions.
• IHS-CERA LNG Capital Cost Index. LNGAnalytics includes the LNG component of the IHS-CERA Upstream Cost Index. The LNG Index tracks the cost over time of a representative basket of liquefaction, shipping, and regas projects. Based on updates of key cost inputs—such as materials and labor costs—the aggregate movement in costs is tracked. The LNG Capital Cost Index is updated twice yearly.
• Continuous updates. The industry data provided in LNGAnalytics will be constantly updated as new projects are announced, projects are expanded, and other developments warrant. LNGAnalytics provides a one-stop reference for the LNG industry.
• User support. LNGAnalytics was designed by CERA LNG industry research professionals who will be available to answer questions about the factual information in LNGAnalytics and to help clients utilize its analytical tools.

What is LNGAnalytics^TM

LNGAnalytics^TMis the source for critical information and economic analysis of the global LNG business. It is a Web-based application, residing on the existing CERA.com site, that offers a unique combination of comprehensive data, forward-looking CERA projections across markets, and project economics analysis tools. A new Web-based platform has been specially designed to enable user interactivity and to meet the need for immediate access to more detailed and user-friendly data. LNGAnalytics provides clients with greater detail on the analysis that underlies the key CERA market messages and insights that are part of the traditional CERA research Advisory Services focused on gas.

• A single comprehensive information source. LNGAnalytics provides full details on all existing and proposed LNG plays—upstream, liquefaction, shipping, and regasification. It includes market outlooks for fundamentals such as supply/demand and prices. It also includes data profiles of specific projects and assets. The information is updated on a regular schedule.
• An economic analysis tool. CERA is making available the results of analyses performed with the use of in-house software, and is coupling this information with economic tools within the LNGAnalytics product to provide economic evaluations of projects. LNGAnalytics also provides cross-project economic benchmarking, a "hierarchy" of supply and regasification projects, and the creation of cost stacks by region.
• Ease of use. LNGAnalytics is designed primarily for use by analysts working in market fundamentals, corporate planning and strategy, gas procurement, and business development. It is also a support tool for financiers working on equity research, project financing, credit, mergers, and due diligence. It provides the market fundamentals to help develop, illustrate, and support an internal strategy development. It can also be used as a first pass tool for asset investment decisions.

Data Structure and Components

LNGAnalytics^TM is structured around four topics: LNG supply, shipping, regasification, and markets.

Supply

LNGAnalytics includes data on more than 56 liquefaction projects in 24 countries, including 180 upstream gas fields and 101 liquefaction trains, plus more than 200 long-term supply contracts. Coverage includes all LNG projects in operation, under construction, or known to be in the planning stages. This database will be continually updated with more projects as the industry grows.

Shipping

LNGAnalytics includes data on the full fleet of 352 tankers (operational and under construction), plus transportation distances and economics for 3,255 shipping routes. This database will be continually updated as the LNG tanker fleet grows and new export and import locations are announced.

Regasification

LNGAnalytics includes data on 186 regas projects (operational, under construction, and proposed) in 37 countries. The regasification database will be continually updated with more projects as the industry grows.

Markets

LNGAnalytics includes historical data and CERA outlooks—both short and long term—on global LNG markets by country or region.

• CERA’s Liquefaction Inventory: a train-by-train log of proposed projects with official or earliest realistic start-up date
• CERA’s Regasification Inventory: a log of proposed regas facilities
• annual LNG supply outlooks to 2020 by region
• annual LNG demand outlooks by country
• cost stacks FOB per exporting country
• cost stacks ex-ship per importing country
• short-term monthly price outlooks and long-term annual price outlooks for key markets

How is LNGAnalytics^TM Used?

LNGAnalytics^TM can be used for a variety of typical evaluative tasks, including

• Initial opportunity targeting. LNGAnalytics can help quickly identify potential opportunities, whether for gas procurement, capacity reservations, or asset investments. It helps to guide companies to areas where they should focus more in-depth study.
• "What if…?" analysis. By allowing users to change basic inputs in project economics, LNGAnalyticscan feed into different internal scenario developments, or be used for sensitivity analysis.
• Support investment decisions. LNGAnalyticsis an essential first-pass testing tool for companies making investment decisions on any segment in the LNG value chain. It provides quick and essential knowledge and backup in preparing for meetings with counterparties and entering early-stage negotiations.
• Market scoping. CERA’s outlooks for market development provide an input in formulating budgets and deciding where best to allocate human and financial resources, and offer management a balanced and independent view of the future growth of the market sector.
• Joint-venture analysis. LNGAnalyticsprovides a neutral and objective basis for negotiation and discussion in a multiparty joint venture, thereby avoiding reliance on proprietary data from one particular party. LNGAnalyticscan help build a common approach and trust between partners based on a common analytical base.
• Third-party validation. LNGAnalyticsis an essential tool for companies to use in comparing their own economics with an outside viewpoint. Similar results build confidence and lend credibility to internal work; differing results shed light on uncertainties, value gaps, and alternative approaches.
• Partnership analysis. LNGAnalyticsis a powerful guide in recognizing complementarities between different players in the business.
• "Where can I find…?" LNGAnalyticsis the one-stop solution for meeting urgent data needs.

Case Studies and Questions

Typical sample questions that LNGAnalytics^TM can help answer:

• What are the relative costs of the West African LNG projects, including feed gas cost estimates, and what are the condensate-to-gas ratios?
• Which fields feed Trinidad’s LNG facilities, and how much gas is remaining?
• What is the NPV of each Australian LNG project, and how much does it depend on the discount rate used?
• How big is the equity ownership of each partner in the Angola LNG project, and what is the capex of the LNG plant?
• What is the heat content (Btu/cf) of LNG delivered from the Damietta plant in Egypt?
• How does a potential increase in capital cost for Peru LNG affect the unit production cost?
• Of the projects under construction, how much capacity is uncontracted in the Pacific Basin?
• What are the costs of delivering LNG to the United States?
• How much are shipping costs affected by a reduction in time charter rates, and how does that change the supply cost curve into India?
• How does an increase in time charter rates in the second half of 2007 affect the FOB netbacks for LNG delivery from Qatar to the United States?
• Which ships are due for delivery in 2008, and who owns them?
• How much have regasification costs risen in the past 12 months?
• Who are the regas capacity holders at the Altamira facility in Mexico, and what are the shipping costs from the Middle East?
• How much LNG will Spain need in 2015, and how much has it secured under contract?
• What will be the supply-demand balance in the Pacific Basin post-2010?
• What will be the price of gas in California in 2008, and how much LNG will be delivered to the West Coast?
• Which companies are the five largest importers of LNG?

How Does CERA LNGAnalytics^TM Evaluate Projects?

The CERA Approach to Valuations and Costs

A unique feature of LNGAnalytics^TM is CERA’s own calculations of project costs and valuations. To perform this work, CERA has employed QUE$TOR and QUE$TOR LNG, a bottom-up cost estimator tool developed, owned, and available for license from IHS. QUE$TOR is widely used through the industry to make pre-engineering estimates of oil and gas field development costs. QUE$TOR utilizes a detailed set of inputs and simulations.

QUE$TOR is used to provide gas field development costs as an input to LNG project economics in LNGAnalytics. QUE$TOR LNG is an estimator tool for providing costs of LNG liquefaction and regasification projects. Thus, LNGAnalytics is supported by the proprietary cost estimates from these two powerful cost estimation tools. Finally, LNGAnalytics includes a versatile shipping cost calculator to compute costs under user-defined inputs for all the main transportation routes. Together these tools produce costs for the full supply chain. An independent view on costs allows users to gain better judgment on overall project profitability and the distribution of value through the chain.