For more details, please call Martha O'Connor at +1 617 866 5132

Special Webinar

On October 15, 208, CERA hosted a Special Webinar, where we presented highlights from the recently completed Feeding the Dragon: China's Energy Future to 2030. During the call, the CERA team discussed the overview of the study and our key conclusions. To view a replay of the webinar, please complete the form below:

Overview

We are pleased to announce the completion of the CERA Multiclient Study Feeding the Dragon: China’s Energy Future to 2030. This in-depth, scenario-based analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of potential futures (scenarios) for China’s coal, oil, natural gas, and power sectors and examines the effects of national and provincial government policy making and implementation.

Feeding the Dragon provides an invaluable tool for companies to assess the impact of future energy supply, demand and import trends; market structure and the role of foreign and domestic companies; and, the impact China’s evolution will have on the world. The study analyzed these drivers and outcomes in a wide range of critical areas, such as

• Choices for new power generation technology and fuel share
• Balancing domestic natural gas production, pipeline imports, and LNG
• Penetration of alternative technologies and fuels in China’s automobile fleet, and the resulting implications for gasoline, diesel and crude oil demand
• Investment in oil and gas exploration, production, and refining capacity
• Meeting China’s rapidly growing coal demand, and addressing growing bottlenecks in rail transportation

The Feeding the Dragon final report includes a Strategic Implications by Industry Segment section that synthesizes the key insights from the long-term scenario analysis to assess the risks and benefits of alternative strategies for specific industry sectors, including upstream oil and gas, downstream oil, downstream gas and LNG, coal, power, and transportation.

Feeding the Dragon provides participants with an in-depth guide to understanding how the Chinese energy landscape may change as a result of the interaction of varying government policies at the national and provincial level with technology development, market forces, and investment needs, and a critical framework for developing timely strategic and investment responses in this uncertain environment.

Scope

Feeding the Dragon: China’s Energy Future takes a 25-year view on the driving forces that will shape energy markets in China. These include geopolitics and economic drivers—as well as environmental and energy security policy responses, and the impact on investment strategies and decision making.

This in turn will create a framework for analyzing strategic and tactical decisions under specific market and policy conditions. The study assesses

• The Current State of Energy in China. What are the current market landscape for oil, natural gas, coal, power, and renewables in China? Who are the key players? What are the existing government policies, and how are these programs shaping today’s investment strategies? This CERA analysis of the current China energy landscape is a key springboard and foundation for assessing future scenarios.
• The Driving Forces of China’s Energy Future. Is China able to maintain and fuel its current pace of growth over the long- term? If not, what will be the main constraint to growth and what will be the consequences? How will volatile fossil fuel prices affect China’s energy landscape? How will structural changes in China’s energy industry affect international energy markets? We will examine the market, policy, demographic, social and economic drivers to discern which are most important in determining China’s future path.
• Future Government Policies and Regulations. China’s energy markets have historically been driven by government policies. The recent restructuring and marketization indicates that government policies and regulation are likely to remain a key but evolving energy driver in the future. How far will market structures and incentives be allowed to develop? What role will environmental concerns have in shaping future policy? We will examine how government policies and regulations are likely to evolve under alternative scenarios.
• Successful Strategies in an Uncertain Energy Landscape. The scenarios that are developed in the  Feeding the Dragon: China’s Energy Future have different implications for players across the energy value chain. China’s changing structure, competitive dynamics, scale, and scope will create winners and losers. Those with early warning can best shape their strategies to maximize opportunities while minimizing risks. The study provides a more detailed evaluation of implications for a variety of market participants: 
  • Energy producers active in China—oil and gas, coal
  • Equipment suppliers
  • Energy end-users
  • Electric power—utilities, independent power producers
  • Financial institutions and investors, private equity groups
  • Global LNG developers
  • New entrants monitoring opportunities from the sidelines
  • Alternative energy producers/enablers
  • Environmental service providers and suppliers

Table of Contents*

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. Strategic Questions
B. Scenarios in Brief
C. Key Insights and Implications

II. KEY INSIGHTS AND IMPLICATIONS

A. General Insights and Implications
B. Segment-specific Insights and Implications

III. THE CONTEXT: CHINA ’S ENERGY CHALLENGE

A. Current State of Energy
B. Politics and Economics
C. Demographics

IV. SCENARIO PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY

A. The Scenario Planning Process and Logic
B. Key Assumptions and Analytical Framework

V. CHINA ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2030

A. Overview and Key Drivers for Each Scenario
B. Scenario Evolution and Timeline of Main Events
C. Signposts Identifying Inflection Points

VI. SCENARIO RESULTS: OIL SECTOR

A. Key Findings
B. Scenario Comparison of Sector Results

a. Supply/Demand Balance
b. Infrastructure Development
c. Investment Need

VII. SCENARIO RESULTS: NATURAL GAS SECTOR

A. Key Findings
B. Scenario Comparison of Sector Results

a. Supply/Demand Balance
b. Infrastructure Development and Capital Need

VIII. SCENARIO RESULTS: POWER SECTOR

A. Key Findings
B. Scenario Comparison of Sector Results

a. Supply/Demand Balance
b. Infrastructure Development and Capital Need

IX. SCENARIO RESULTS: COAL

A. Key Findings
B. Scenario Comparison of Sector Results

a. Supply/Demand Balance
b. Infrastructure Development and Capital Need

X. Provincial Case Studies

A. Guangdong

B. Liaoning

C. Inner Mongolia

XI. APPENDIX: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED DATA TABLES (2000–30)

*Subject to change.

Quantitative Analysis

Each scenario will be accompanied by detailed quantitative analysis—a distinct and unique aspect of CERA’s scenario approach, enabling participants to apply the results to specific business decisions. The analysis will draw on the combined expertise of CERA’s highly regarded oil, natural gas, coal, and electric power capabilities—and the wealth of expertise and data across sectors.

CERA's Global Energy Scenarios
A Critical Foundation for Analyzing the China Energy Future
CERA recently completed Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030, a major, wide-ranging project designed to assist the 68 companies and organizations that participated as members of the study to evaluate strategy, test investment decisions, and understand the underlying forces of change in the world. This study presents three sharply etched global energy scenarios that provide distinctive views on how geopolitics; technological change; and economic, demographic, and environmental trends could evolve over the next 25 years. The Dawn of a New Age study is the most ambitious global project that CERA has ever undertaken. The three global energy scenarios and key insights from the study will form an important foundation for the analysis in the Feeding the Dragon: China’s Energy Future, offering a global and comprehensive interfuel framework.

Process and Timing

CERA’s scenario process is highly interactive, and study participants are invited to participate in three dynamic events designed to present CERA’s research results, discuss and debate assumptions, and interact with a community of peers from across the energy spectrum. These sessions are valuable in their own right, and contribute to the quality of the analysis. The following is the timetable (note: all dates are subject to change):

Step 1: Initial Kickoff Workshop (Beijing, November 28, 2007)

• This kickoff session will include an integrated framing of the current state of the China energy landscape and implications for the various interested parties. Specifically CERA will draw on our recently completed Dawn of a New Age Multiclient Study as a starting point for framing the critical issues and establishing the foundation for  Feeding the Dragon: China’s Energy Future .

Special Session

(Houston, during CERAWeek, February 11-15, 2008)

Step 2: Midproject Workshop (Beijing, April 11, 2008)

• CERA will present draft China energy scenario themes and gain feedback to focus the final study analysis.

Step 3: Final Study Workshop (June 2008)

• Results of CERA’s research and study findings will be presented at an interactive workshop, along with an initial analysis of the strategic implications for key segments of the energy business.

Step 4: Final Report (Summer 2008)

• The complete final report for  Feeding the Dragon: China’s Energy Future will be available online, including written text, graphics, data, and Executive Summary. The Executive Summary and the complete report with key conclusions will be available in printed form as well.

Step 5: "Wind Tunneling" Exercise

(After completion of final report, date to be determined by the client)

• Company specific strategy testing across scenarios
• Identify strengths and weakness of specific client strategies or tactical decisions
• Independently test the robustness of strategies and/or business against the market landscape and the implications of CERA’s scenarios
• Identify the strategic and business conditions in which the client is exposed or at most risk, as well as those that are the most robust under various business environments

Deliverables

Participating companies receive

• Invitation for up to three participants at the  Feeding the Dragon: China’s Energy Future study workshops
• Final report and Executive Summary
• Access to the private study Web site including figures and data tables
• Company specific "wind tunneling" exercise

(optional, for an additional fee)

• On-site presentations and interactive briefings
• Additional copies of the final report