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Service Benefits

The service provides objective, independent research that can help your organization

• Understand the competitiveness of gas versus coal and oil products.
• Improve understanding of difficult-to-research European storage markets by exploring flexibility requirements.
• Anticipate investment opportunities in new pipeline and LNG supply projects.
• Evaluate the outlook for gas price dynamics and the development of different pricing mechanisms: spot markets, prices linked to oil or other fuels, and innovative pricing options.
• Assess the opportunities and risks created by changes in European energy regulation and examine the impact on European gas supply and pricing.
• Identify the trade-offs in risks and opportunities of strategic choices regarding environmental, energy efficiency, and security goals.

Future Research Themes: Big Questions

Members receive strategic reports that address questions of critical importance to the European gas industry:

• How will Europe be affected by the growing global gas market?
• Will Europe’s environmental targets reverse the trend of growing annual gas demand?
• Will the dual-price dynamic be maintained or is development of a single liquid traded gas market across Europe inevitable?
• How will the credit crisis and the economic downturn affect the European gas industry?
• Does the combination of the economic downturn, increased government involvement in the energy sector, and the 2020 targets imply a new European business model?
• Can Europe achieve its goal of increased security of supply?

Recent Research

• An Enduring Relationship? Oil and Gas Prices in Europe.
  The strength and sustainability of the link between gas and oil prices are the key uncertainties facing the European gas industry. This is not a new question, but it has never been more important. The globalization of the gas market is being demonstrated in the force of Atlantic price convergence through LNG trade. This powerful convergence is colliding with the sellers’ traditional commitment to long-term oil-indexed contracts.

• Big Questions Facing Russia and the Caspian Region in
  2009. The energy sector is in transition throughout Russia and the
  Caspian, as governments and industries struggle to formulate effective responses to the global economic crisis. But energy industry fundamentals appear largely sound, and the current crisis could be followed by a new period of strong growth, depending on fiscal reform in Russia and a resurgence in world oil and gas demand to drive exports. Our focus is on falling global demand, reduced oil and gas production, upstream project delays, reduced investment budgets, the need for new export capacity, transportation investment, and tax reforms.

• Global Gas Surplus: How Will the Industry Deal with
  Oversupply?  The global natural gas industry is suffering from the
  triple whammy of reduced global gas demand, growth
  in unconventional gas in North America, and the long anticipated
  surge in global LNG supply. Now a global gas supply bubble has
  emerged. Asian demand for LNG will fall below 2008 levels,
  European 2009 gas demand will be below minimum take levels, and North America is also facing a recession-induced decline in gas
  demand. Low gas prices will last well into 2010.

• Where the Wind Blows: The Impact of Wind Generation on
  Natural Gas Storage in Europe. Significant progress toward meeting the European Union ’s 2020 environmental targets will require large-scale development of wind generation. However, as gas-fired power stations back up intermittent wind generation, gas suppliers will need to provide highly flexible gas deliveries to support increasingly variable demand. This will result in a greater need for storage. There is scope in northern Europe for investment in new storage facilities, but in southern and eastern Europe more innovative solutions will be required, providing new opportunities for regas owners and capacity holders, and leading to the amendment of LNG contracts to increase flexibility.

Research Deliverables

Analysis covers Western Europe, Central Europe, and Turkey.

Fundamentals Reports
European Gas Watch (twice per year) provides insight on the
key business trends and critical issues affecting the European
gas market through the study of key strategic themes and offers
a long-term outlook to 2035:

European Gas Market Briefing (ten per year) provides forecasts on market fundamentals and commentary on key drivers affecting the short- to medium-term market:

• Outlook to 2015
  • Sectoral demand at national level and national supply balances
  • Price and spark spread outlooks

Competitive Fuel Analysis Report (quarterly) compares
competitiveness of gas versus coal, oil, and oil products (including
prices and macroeconomic data).

European Gas Hub Tracker (quarterly) analyzes traded volumes
and liquidity at main trading points and provides insight into
regulatory and other changes that may affect liquidity.

European Storage Watch (annually) analyzes storage utilization
and outlook to 2035. Reports on national storage balance—
existing storage, planned new storage, and requirement for storage
and national requirement for long- and short-term flexibility.

Strategic Reports

Driven by IHS CERA’s Big Questions, which have implications for corporate leaders, investors, government policymakers, and energy users. The answers to these questions will set the stage for the strategic future of the European gas industry. Delivered as Private Reports and Decision Briefs.

Data Center

• Country-level historical gas demand, supply, and price to 2035(quarterly)
• Country-level historical gas demand, supply, and price to 2015(monthly)
• Country-level natural gas end-user prices (quarterly)
• Heating and cooling degree-days (quarterly)
• Supply projects inventory (monthly)
• Storage Tracker (monthly) analyzes gas storage utilization.
• Country Profiles (annually) analyzes key market and regulatory developments, with associated data files detailing gas production, consumption, imports, and exports in all European countries.
  • Supply and demand fundamentals developments
  • Industry structure and infrastructure
  • Wholesale price forecasts for major energy markets
  • Environmental policies

Phone Access to Research Staff
Events: Advisory Service members may participate in exclusive client gatherings fostering interaction among senior-level decision makers and IHS CERA experts. Membership includes seats at IHS CERA’s Executive Roundtables held each spring and fall. Clients may also attend CERAWeek, featuring IHS CERA’s Executive Conference and related events, held annually in Houston, for a reduced fee.