HOUSTON, February 15, 2005 – The world is not running out of commercially viable oil reserves. Ample reserves in the ground, however, are no guarantee that enough oil will be developed and supplied in a timely manner to forestall rising oil prices, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) Director of Oil Industry Activity Peter Jackson told a briefing today at CERAWeek, the firm’s 24th annual Executive Conference.
“Although concerns are growing in some quarters that the world is nearing a peak in oil production, after which it will plateau and then decline, in CERA’s view, setting aside above-ground political and security issues, world oil production capacity through 2010 points toward continued growth in both non-OPEC and OPEC liquid production capacity,” Jackson told the briefing.
CERA projects total liquids capacity will rise almost 20% to 101.5 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2010, with approximately equal increases from non-OPEC (+7.6 mbd) and OPEC (+8.9 mbd) countries. Increases are expected in all of the OPEC countries, except Indonesia which will remain flat, with a large proportion of the overall increase coming from major projects in the deepwater areas of Brazil, Nigeria, Angola and the Gulf of Mexico. Other significant contributions are expected from the Caspian region and Canadian Oil Sands, with the rate of liquids capacity decline being arrested in some countries by government initiatives, including new approaches to asset management, new technology, and even surprises with the drillbit.
“To be sure, there are risks to supply growth,” Jackson said, indicating the primary risk is the possibility of delays to major projects at the sanction stage and through construction, as well as the possibility of higher field decline rates in some areas or reductions in resource additions through exploration or field upgrades. “Perhaps the most unpredictable and sensitive factor is evaluating the impact of political events on productive capacity as illustrated currently in Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia.” Many of these factors are built in to CERA’s outlook for oil production capacity, he added.
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a subsidiary of IHS Inc., is a leading advisor to international energy companies, governments, financial institutions, and technology providers. CERA (www.cera.com) delivers strategic knowledge and independent analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends, and strategy. CERA is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and has offices in Beijing; Calgary; Mexico City; Moscow; Oakland, California; Oslo; Paris; São Paolo; and Washington, DC.
|
